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Election Night will tell us what pollsters were right

No Comments 6 November 2012

Election Night will tell us what pollsters were right

Below I post what the pollsters predicted for the electoral college outcomes. In less then two hours we will start seeing result. This will be an exciting election night, perhaps even a cliffhanger.

John Cassidy reports:

Two days on, with Election Day upon us, not much has changed. The vast majority of pundits, academics, and forecasters agree that Obama will win. Indeed, there is a broad consensus about his likely margin of victory in the electoral college: 303 to 235. In addition to myself, a number of prognosticators have settled on these figures. They include the Democratic strategist Joe Trippi; the Slate blogger Matt Yglesias; the Huffpo’s Pollster tracking model; the Web site PredictWise, the consulting firm CabPolitical. Most other forecasts are grouped around the 303-235 projection. Early Tuesday morning, Nate Silver’s 538 model was predicting Obama 315, Romney 223; Sam Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium had it at Obama 309, Romney 229. Larry Sabato and his colleagues at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics were predicting that Obama would do slightly less well but still win. Their figures for the electoral college: Obama 290, Romney 248.

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