Timothy Noah on Slate.com walks you through the numbers why Hillary Clinton does not have a real shot to win the Democratic nomination. If she wins it in the end, Hillary Clinton will be a true princess and Timothy Noah will be transformed into an ugly frog,  living unhappily ever after.

Can we please stop pretending she has a plausible chance to win the nomination?

“Give me a break. This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.”

Here’s a rule I would like every political reporter, campaign official, TV talking head, and politician in the United States to follow. Go ahead and say, if you like, that Hillary Clinton retains a serious chance of winning the Democratic nomination. If you say this, however, you must describe a set of circumstances whereby this could happen. Try not to make it sound like a fairy tale.

Yes, Obama has dropped a few points in national polls, and Clinton has picked up a few points, putting her in the lead. The Gallup Tracking Poll had it 49-45 for Clinton on April 30, compared to 50-42 Obama on April 15. That isn’t surprising in a week when Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, elaborated on his most controversial statements at the National Press Club (click here for the video), prompting Obama to distance himself more emphatically (“I will talk to him perhaps some day in the future.